U. of Miami Predicts Cuban Transition Post-Castro "Quick and Easy"

Last year the US Government shelled out $1 million to the U. of Miami Cuban Studies Dept. to plan for the coming "transition" in Cuba. Trouble is they came back and reported that there will be NO real "transition" in Cuba post-Castro.

In a facinating first-hour "war game type" scenario they had Raul Castro clumbsily assuming power, firing (Assembly President) Richard Alacron and arrresting all the "dissidents" - but still the Revolutionary system survives. They were clear with their main prediction: when Castro leaves or dies a stable, "quick and easy" post-Castro transition is virtaully assured.

"Too many people assume that when Fidel dies, the system is going to immediately collapse. We don't anticipate that..." said Jaime Suchlicki, director of UM's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

On Raul Casto: "He is not charismatic and, by and large, the Cuban people don't like him. But he is a very skilled organizer. He has run the armed forces for 47 years. This is the most successful military of any Third World country for many years. . . . Fidel would have never lasted this long without his brother. Raúl is underestimated in Miami."

Cuban leaders were aghast at this common sense. Miami Republican Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart called the exercise an "academic justification for a lack of pressure for a democratic transition.''It really shows how out of touch they are if they think Cubans are going to embrace the "dissident movement" and exile leaders.

However, if there was any doubt the Miami analysts were on the wrong team, the project leader made clear his allegiances and preference for instability and violence: "None of us want what we discussed here,'' Suchlicki said. "It's the most likely scenario, but it's not what we wish for." 'We're just offering a reality check.'' INDEED