Sunday, February 05, 2006

U. of Miami Predicts Cuban Transition Post-Castro "Quick and Easy"

Last year the US Government shelled out $1 million to the U. of Miami Cuban Studies Dept. to plan for the coming "transition" in Cuba. Trouble is they came back and reported that there will be NO real "transition" in Cuba post-Castro.

In a facinating first-hour "war game type" scenario they had Raul Castro clumbsily assuming power, firing (Assembly President) Richard Alacron and arrresting all the "dissidents" - but still the Revolutionary system survives. They were clear with their main prediction: when Castro leaves or dies a stable, "quick and easy" post-Castro transition is virtaully assured.

"Too many people assume that when Fidel dies, the system is going to immediately collapse. We don't anticipate that..." said Jaime Suchlicki, director of UM's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

On Raul Casto: "He is not charismatic and, by and large, the Cuban people don't like him. But he is a very skilled organizer. He has run the armed forces for 47 years. This is the most successful military of any Third World country for many years. . . . Fidel would have never lasted this long without his brother. Raúl is underestimated in Miami."

Cuban leaders were aghast at this common sense. Miami Republican Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart called the exercise an "academic justification for a lack of pressure for a democratic transition.''It really shows how out of touch they are if they think Cubans are going to embrace the "dissident movement" and exile leaders.

However, if there was any doubt the Miami analysts were on the wrong team, the project leader made clear his allegiances and preference for instability and violence: "None of us want what we discussed here,'' Suchlicki said. "It's the most likely scenario, but it's not what we wish for." 'We're just offering a reality check.'' INDEED


Blogger scott said...

Perhaps once the iron-fisted dictator finally heads south, we'll see people of principle challenge the communist elite.

$12 a month should make the populace a bit edgy and ready for change.

Socialism is dying as we've seen in the last few years the election of conservatives in Australia, America, Germany and today a conservative was sworn in in Canada.

Socialists have won in one major nation--Spain, and that was an appeasement strategy to stop al-Qaeda from attacking once more. In other words, socialism won there by default and fear.

1:23 PM  
Blogger leftside said...

On Castro's death, didn't you read what the experts
all agreed on - that when Castro goes (I think he'll
retire before he passes) the transition will be smooth
and easy? HRW guessed there are fewer than 1,000
people in Cuba involved in opposing the Revolution...
a few hundred organized ... who smartly stay away from
the US's tenticles. They may disagree with some things
but who they don't want AT ALL are the US exiles, who
are the wild card in any transition.

I know they always use $12 Dollars a month because it
sounds so bad, but they never explain that nearly
everything you need is free and everyone is paid and
buys in Pesos (300 Pesos a month). Housing, health and
education are totally free, utilities are a few pesos,
transportation 1/10th of a peso, what food they don't
get for free each month takes a large part of the
budget. But things are improving fast - GDP up 9%,
wages increased big time over the past few months (2x
minimum wage, social security up 25%, all those with
Master's degrees (who are many) got an extra 80
pesos...). Most Cubans save money...

Conservatives may have won in a few large countries,
but my eyes are on the huge movement to the left in
Latin America, which this blog is focused on...
another one today in Costa Rica, no matter which party


the recount. Socialists recently won in Norway,
Portugal, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria...

And Aznar lost because he lied to the nation about who
was bombing them for political reasons... Yes, the
people wanted out of Iraq, in immensely unpopular war.
Not because they wanted to appease Al-Qaeda - in fact
Spain under Zapatero has been rounding up terrorists
right and left (15 when I was there in Dec.)

10:42 PM  

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